Editor’s Note: The original text has been deleted.
Zhang Lun, Associate Professor at the University of Paris-Est Créteil. He studied under the sociology master Alain Touraine at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales in Paris during the 1990s and obtained his doctorate.
Source: Dunjiao Network
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Ma Guochuan: Currently, there is a lot of attention in China on the pandemic in other countries, but the information is quite chaotic. As a French professor visiting the United States, what is your understanding of the real pandemic situation in Europe and the United States?
Zhang Lun: The Chinese public's concern for the pandemic in other countries shows a care for the world, which is certainly a good thing. However, due to being in a special information space, there is some cognitive bias regarding the external situation. The pandemic in Europe and the United States is indeed quite severe, but it has not reached the level that the Chinese perceive. It is true that the public, media, and opposition parties in these countries criticize and express dissatisfaction with their governments, but criticism of the government is part of the political culture in these countries and will always exist. In the face of such a huge public health crisis, there will definitely be many critical voices, not to mention that there are indeed aspects of these countries' responses that warrant reflection.
At the same time, it should be noted that the vast majority of the public still comply with and cooperate with government epidemic prevention measures, even if it brings some inconvenience. The government is indeed the object of criticism, and criticism is warranted, but since it is a legitimate government authorized by citizens, its decisions should still be followed. This is the civic culture of modern states. Therefore, there is basically no social tension beyond what is related to epidemic prevention. Of course, this is just based on my personal observations.
Ma Guochuan: Why has the U.S. stock market experienced multiple circuit breakers? Does this indicate that there is indeed social panic?
Zhang Lun: In fact, many people (including those on Wall Street) have long seen that the U.S. stock market bubble has become quite serious. The market decline is related to the panic caused by the pandemic on one hand, and on the other hand, it is also related to the inherent trend of market correction. I believe that as long as the prevention and control measures are put in place and people's emotions gradually stabilize, the stock market will return to rationality.
Ma Guochuan: Currently, cases in France and the United States are rising rapidly. Why is France so careless, and why hasn’t Trump taken timely measures?
Zhang Lun: As far as I know, France had long prepared a very detailed plan according to routine, but this public health crisis is unprecedented and caught many off guard. The epidemic prevention arrangements made based on past experiences may not be suitable for the strange and rapid spread of this virus. The resulting shortages of medical resources are also difficult to improve in the short term, especially since many resources like masks were sourced from China and a lot of stock was sent to China, making coordination even more difficult. France has prepared 5,000 intensive care beds, of which about 2,500 are currently in use, with the rest as backup. However, given the development of the pandemic, the military is still being mobilized to urgently set up new temporary hospitals to increase bed capacity. Additionally, some urgently needed medical facilities, such as oxygen machines, are produced by only one manufacturer, which can only produce 1,600 machines of both types needed in a month, even with overtime. Imports from Germany, which has stronger production capacity in this regard, are also not possible, as they are also working overtime to fulfill orders from the German government. France's public healthcare system is recognized as one of the best in the world, but in the summer of 2003, due to the generally cool summer, homes typically did not have air conditioning, and the unexpected prolonged heat wave led to the deaths of over 10,000 elderly people. To put it metaphorically, this wave of the pandemic attacks with a very fierce and cunning "enemy," and losses are inevitable.
As for the United States, they initially did some things right, such as interrupting flights with China early, but by focusing attention on China, they did not anticipate the arrival of infected individuals from Europe and the Middle East, thus breaching the "Maginot Line" from behind. Moreover, the U.S. government's understanding of the virus's spread may also have taken time to develop. Additionally, Trump may have neglected the situation due to concerns that fluctuations in public sentiment could affect the stock market and the economic conditions he prides himself on, which would be unfavorable in an election year. Furthermore, the people in these countries, accustomed to peace and freedom, also need time to adapt.
This also touches on the paradox of how democratic governments handle such issues: even though they know the problem may be severe, if the pandemic has not developed significantly and people do not recognize it, taking some extreme measures could provoke backlash and fail to achieve the desired effect. Therefore, finding the right balance is crucial. Just like in World War II, some elites in the U.S. were well aware that intervention was inevitable, but it was only after Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor that Roosevelt declared war. The trouble this time is that once the COVID-19 virus spreads, it does so with unprecedented speed, and the changes in administrative operations, lifestyles, cultural and religious activities must occur almost overnight, which is nearly unprecedented (for example, wearing masks, which many in the West have never done in their lives), making adaptation quite difficult.
Ma Guochuan: The pandemic in Italy is severe, with a particularly high mortality rate. Some people say that there are indeed efficiency issues with democratic systems. What is your comment on this view?
Zhang Lun: If we say that a liberal democratic system cannot effectively respond to this public health crisis, then we cannot explain why Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have successfully managed their epidemic prevention. Even within democratic systems, different countries have different response strategies, and the results vary. For example, why is Italy's mortality rate so high? In addition to insufficient medical resources and a large area of infection, the social and cultural lifestyle, especially the aging population, plays a significant role. In Italy, those over 65 account for more than 22% of the total population, and many of the deceased are elderly over 70 or 80. In France, 85% of the deceased are over 70. However, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan also have relatively serious aging populations; why is the problem not as severe there? It may be related to their handling methods and cultural factors. In addition to effective management by the administrative departments in these countries and regions, people's hygiene habits and team spirit and self-discipline have also played a significant role.
Therefore, evaluating the measures and effects of various countries in responding to this public health crisis involves aspects such as national systems, cultural traditions, population structure, and medical resources, and cannot be simply explained by a single variable. We should not always focus on others' temporary problems to seek some psychological satisfaction for ourselves. We should look at their strengths and pay less attention to their weaknesses, and we must not be overly complacent; complacency will lead to problems. We are in an era of great change, and only by understanding more facts and having more perspectives on issues can we avoid bias.
Ma Guochuan: China's approach to solving public health crises is to "concentrate resources to tackle major issues." This "national system" has received a lot of support from the public and has indeed been effective in addressing such sudden crises.
Zhang Lun: I do not deny the immediate effectiveness of "concentrating resources to tackle major issues," but many people may not have thought clearly that the ability to "concentrate resources to tackle major issues" is conditional. In China, there are both systemic factors and scale factors that not all other countries can achieve. We can concentrate all resources on epidemic prevention in Wuhan, but if five or six Wuhans appear simultaneously, even if we concentrate our efforts, it would be difficult to achieve immediate results. The difficult situation in Italy is related to this. How can Italy, which has allowed the epidemic to spread, concentrate resources to tackle major issues? Secondly, we should not only see the effects of concentrating resources to tackle major issues but also consider the costs and sometimes more severe secondary consequences. For example, now that the epidemic in Wuhan is under control, it is certainly a good thing, but the spotlight is now focused on the effectiveness of controlling the COVID-19 virus. How many other patients have not received timely treatment due to the concentration of medical resources? How significant are the other secondary harms? We may not yet have a clearer and more comprehensive assessment of these.
Traditionally, China has been an empire of "quantity," capable of relying on concentrated efforts to undertake many large projects, but once a crisis occurs, due to a lack of local autonomy and effective balancing mechanisms, the transmission effects and consequences of disasters can be very severe. In the modern world, overly emphasizing "concentrating resources to tackle major issues" as a trump card for such a large country is actually very dangerous. This is because the essence of modern civilization is changeable and full of risks, with various innovations and unpredictable crises occurring at any time, all waiting for a decision-making center to "concentrate resources to tackle major issues," hiding various significant hidden dangers.
Ma Guochuan: Although the responses of European and American countries differ, they are generally criticized by Chinese netizens for being too soft and should "copy homework" and learn from China. How do you evaluate this public opinion?
Zhang Lun: When a major epidemic strikes, Western countries find it difficult to force their citizens to stay at home like in a prison; instead, they rely on awakening each person's self-discipline. Chinese people may be accustomed to a "hard" approach and do not understand the so-called "soft" approach, which reflects the differences in systems, cultures, and value standards between China and the West. There is a fundamental question here: What is the basic philosophy of the national system? Is it based on efficiency as the legitimacy of all systems and policies, or is it based on morality and individual rights? It cannot be said that these factors are completely incompatible with efficiency, but they can sometimes be contradictory and in conflict. Ultimately, there needs to be a choice of institutional value goals. What exactly do we want? This leads to completely different institutional conditions. No other country has a street management system like China's, which can impose such coercive restrictions on residents' movements outside of the police.
However, it should be pointed out that democratic systems have their "soft" side, but they can also be "hard" at times. Once an "emergency state" is entered according to legal procedures, the government obtains corresponding powers, which may not necessarily be less efficient than authoritarian regimes. The state should pursue long-term stability; efficiency is necessary, but being limited to immediate efficiency and short-term economic development is a manifestation of a lack of historical perspective. A reasonable balance should be sought between long-term efficiency and short-term efficiency, freedom and order.
Ma Guochuan: It is often argued that there is no absolutely perfect system, and all systems can make mistakes.
Zhang Lun: The important thing is to choose a system that minimizes the possibility of mistakes, makes it easy to correct mistakes, and holds someone accountable for mistakes.
A liberal democratic system is certainly not an absolutely perfect system, but it is a system that makes fewer mistakes. Why do some people step down or get replaced by voters under a democratic system? It is because the ruling individuals or groups make mistakes that lead to public dissatisfaction. The philosophical premise of a democratic system is the assumption that people will make mistakes. Who is more likely to make mistakes: someone who believes they will never make mistakes, or someone who acknowledges they can make mistakes and allows for accountability? Shouldn't we choose a system that acknowledges the possibility of mistakes while also better alerting people to this?
Ma Guochuan: Just like this major epidemic, different countries have different handling methods and will also make mistakes. The key is what mistakes should not be made and what mistakes cannot be made. Will someone be held accountable for human errors?
Zhang Lun: Yes. Concealing the pandemic is not only a mistake but also a crime that is absolutely not allowed; insufficient information and slow decision-making are completely different issues. Regardless of which type, someone must be held accountable. Perhaps at a certain point in time, a liberal democratic system may be worse than a centralized system. However, from a long-term perspective, a liberal democratic system makes far fewer mistakes. This is because this system allows for mistakes, allows for criticism, and allows for accountability. Responsibility politics is one of the most important characteristics of modern government. If mistakes are made endlessly without anyone being held accountable, a society will lack a foundation of justice and will eventually face major problems.
Ma Guochuan: It is undeniable that since 1978, China has achieved significant development and has become the world's second-largest economy.
Zhang Lun: In the 1920s and 1930s, many praised the Soviet Union, including some Western scholars. For a considerable period, North Korea's economic growth rate was also higher than that of South Korea. Therefore, we cannot view these issues solely through the lens of temporary achievements and the single variable of efficiency. When looking at issues, we must consider the specific context and have a historical and civilizational perspective. If we only talk about efficiency, modern states are rarely as efficient as Nazi Germany during World War II. However, their early invincibility on the European battlefield did not ensure their long-term dominance.
China's economic development in recent years cannot be denied, but the costs in various aspects may take a long time to repair. The problems brought about by unbalanced development are numerous. The biggest problem over the past few decades has been the complacency of measuring everything solely by economic growth, lacking a pursuit of values. In the future, adjustments must be made to the system to allow citizens to have space for participation and value pursuits. In this sense, China is now facing the task of rediscovering balance and rebuilding civilization. We have reached a point where we need to solve the direction and standards for constructing modernity in China.
From a long-term perspective, we should think about what institutional foundation is needed to rebuild Chinese civilization, construct a future of long-term stability, and ensure the happiness and dignity of the people. We need to seek some transcendent values as the institutional foundation, serving as coordinates for civilizational transformation and institutional transformation.
Ma Guochuan: How is the international community currently evaluating China's measures in response to the pandemic?
Zhang Lun: Since modern times, this may be related to the collapse of traditional Chinese culture and civilization structure. The Chinese are extremely sensitive to external attitudes, particularly enjoying praise while over-interpreting compliments; they also dislike and over-interpret criticisms. At the same time, they take pleasure in criticisms of other countries, not realizing that this may not truly symbolize weakness or decline, but rather is the key to their continuous adjustment and development. A clear example is the blind faith of the Chinese intellectual community in the so-called "Western decline theory" that was popular in the West after World War I. The national mentality of the Chinese oscillates between inferiority and arrogance, which may be a problem that needs to be addressed in China's future development.
Regarding this pandemic, first, most international opinions on China's response measures are relatively objective, recognizing that some measures are effective but cannot be implemented in their own countries. Who has the street management system we mentioned in China? No one, so they cannot "copy homework." Even when these Western countries say "lockdown" and prohibit daily outings, it fundamentally relies on public recognition and self-discipline. This is different from China's "lockdown." Secondly, there is also criticism of China. Supporters tend to focus on the results, while critics pay attention to the violations of citizens' rights that occurred. These views do not stray far from the two basic perspectives we usually hear about China.
Ma Guochuan: Many people are concerned that this pandemic will increase global distrust of China.
Zhang Lun: This is a novel virus with extremely strong transmissibility, and it is understandable and forgivable for mistakes and shortcomings to occur during the handling process. The current issue is whether the responsibilities that should be borne will be borne and whether the mistakes that should be acknowledged will be acknowledged. We cannot let the so-called "face" prevent us from acknowledging responsibilities that should be acknowledged and mistakes that should be recognized. In this case, others will distrust China, and even the image of ordinary Chinese people may become very negative, potentially leading to disastrous consequences in the future.
In recent years, some uncivilized behaviors of Chinese people abroad, their nouveau riche mentality, lack of respect for others, self-righteousness, and sophistry have made me increasingly worried. More than a decade ago, when a Chinese business in Europe was burned, I sensed that there might be a trend of rejecting Chinese people internationally in the future. I am very concerned that this pandemic will increase global distrust of Chinese people, leading to severe consequences. As the subject conveying information to the world, if the Chinese government mishandles the situation, it could likely reinforce this trend and trigger a worse situation.
Ma Guochuan: It seems that a minority of people in China boast about the country's achievements in epidemic prevention while gloating over the pandemic in other countries.
Zhang Lun: I can responsibly say that since the outbreak of the pandemic in China, from Europe to the United States, perhaps there are some, but at least I personally have not seen or heard anyone gloating over China. Although some individuals may have criticisms and doubts about China's response to the pandemic, they do not gloat over the fate of ordinary Chinese people; instead, they express concern in various ways.
Some Chinese people's gloating over other countries is essentially similar to the violent, inhumane treatment of people from Hubei and Wuhan by some Chinese during the peak of the pandemic; both reflect a lack of respect for others and concern for other people's lives. This may be the most important issue that China needs to address, and the most difficult to restore and build in the future. I hope that from this disaster, the thinking, emotions, and understanding of Chinese people can deepen, leading to an enhanced understanding of civilization and life. Whether in China or anywhere in the world, there should be a universal concern and pursuit for justice, human rights, and dignity, not just limited to one's own rights and interests.
Ma Guochuan: Unfortunately, there has been a rise in narrow nationalism and statism.
Zhang Lun: Narrow nationalism and statism have never been a driving force for a nation to advance towards civilization. Modern history shows that narrow nationalism and statism do not benefit a country; instead, they lead to disaster. Loving one's country is beyond dispute, but can we have some transcendent and broader values above our own nation and state? This may be key to determining the future direction of Chinese civilization. If this issue is not handled well, and everything is still defined by the state and nation, it may cause harm and disaster to the development of China and the world.
Ma Guochuan: Civilizational transformation is long-term, but institutional transformation is more important in the short term because if institutions do not transform, then civilizational transformation cannot be initiated.
Zhang Lun: This is an interactive relationship. The lack of establishment of modern civilizational values will lead to more tolerance and recognition of the system's shortcomings; if the system does not allow healthy ideal voices to be transmitted, more and more people will turn to narrow-mindedness. This is a disastrous logic. Fortunately, every disaster awakens some people to break the logic of disaster. The Cultural Revolution was like this, leading to reform and opening up.
Ma Guochuan: Since the 2008 global financial crisis, nationalism and populism have emerged worldwide. Will this global public health crisis further catalyze nationalism and populism?
Zhang Lun: This public health crisis will definitely strengthen the wave of nationalism and populism. The rise of nationalist and populist sentiments globally is significantly attributed to the 2008 economic crisis. In fact, trends had already begun before that; terrorism reflects some related issues in an extreme way. The emergence of the "Rust Belt" in the U.S., the "Yellow Vest" movement in France, and Brexit in the U.K. are all intensifications of this trend. My basic judgment is that marked by this global public health crisis, the wave of globalization that began in the mid-1980s, especially after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, has been severely impacted and is now completely over.
Ma Guochuan: In your view, is the end of this wave of globalization inevitable?
Zhang Lun: Just like the first wave of globalization, which began in the 1860s and 1870s and ended with the outbreak of World War I, during this period, the world developed rapidly and was known as the "Beautiful Era." There were many factors that led to World War I; if any detail had not occurred, it is likely that World War I would not have happened as it did. However, there are still some structural trends and inevitabilities, such as the imbalance of development between countries and internationally, the challenges posed by the rise of emerging powers to the existing world order, and the conflicts between the principles held by emerging countries and the existing value systems. During World War I, Britain and France criticized Germany not only from a geopolitical perspective but also ideologically viewed Germany as an undemocratic country. Similarly, this wave of globalization has structural problems, and the factors leading to its end have accumulated without timely and appropriate adjustments. Of course, I do not believe that globalization has completely ended. How to redefine globalization? How to coordinate and manage globalization? There will be intense debates in the future. It can be basically confirmed that through reflection on this round of globalization, the more romantic aspects of globalization will be criticized, and the role of nation-states may be strengthened for a period, similar to after World War I, where some nationalist and statist claims may proliferate in certain countries or groups, emphasizing national supremacy and being hostile to the outside world. Conversely, a new cosmopolitanism advocating more positive international cooperation will also develop. The competition between these two viewpoints in addressing common human challenges and internal issues within countries will generally and long-term exist as a tone. How the future world develops may call for the vision of leaders from various countries.
Ma Guochuan: This crisis will not only thoroughly impact globalization but also challenge international institutions like the United Nations and the World Bank. For example, the role of the World Health Organization has come under scrutiny.
Zhang Lun: Originally, the world order established after World War II had already been shaken by globalization, the rise of China, and great power competition, and this pandemic will cause further shocks. For the future of humanity, these international institutions should be preserved, but they must undergo comprehensive and profound reforms.
Ma Guochuan: The greatest concern among intellectuals now is that this crisis will not only impact globalization and lead to the collapse of the international order but may also trigger wars.
Zhang Lun: It is entirely possible. In my view, we are experiencing a "third world war." Of course, this is not a traditional war between people, but it involves so many countries and causes such great losses that, from the perspectives of affected populations, losses, national mobilization, and social psychology, it is completely a state of war. Moreover, the measures taken by various countries are fundamentally related to the nature of war, so it is not an exaggeration to draw an analogy to war. This is a non-traditional world war, akin to a new major threat to national and personal security, similar to terrorism.
The battle between humans and the virus, along with the various political, economic, social, and psychological consequences it brings, could also lead to wars between people. The global economic recession caused by the pandemic will shrink economic resources, leading to social conflicts in various places, even in areas not directly affected by the pandemic, which may also experience localized conflicts due to secondary economic issues. Just like in World War II, some countries did not participate in the fighting, but the impact of the war on them was profound, and they could not escape it. In short, it will trigger significant changes in the world order; the old era has collapsed, and from now on, human history will be divided into "before 2020" and "after 2020."
Ma Guochuan: This is also a huge challenge for China, as U.S.-China relations will undergo severe tests.
Zhang Lun: If both sides do not handle it well and mutual distrust grows, or if one side makes certain choices, the trend of U.S.-China relations drifting apart will become irreversible. For China, we have truly entered a new era, and we should promote deeper institutional transformation to achieve a rule of law state.
Like in previous major disasters experienced by humanity, people "after 2020" will cherish life more and love life more. Many carnivals and festivals in history were born this way. This pandemic will certainly trigger significant ideological discussions worldwide regarding public health and the role of government, the position of the market, the relationship between capital and power, operational logic, and the reshaping of geopolitical structures. It may also provoke reflections on fundamental issues of modern civilization: the relationship between humans and nature, and animals, how to view wealth, the environment, and development. It is said that from Venice to China, the air and water have become unprecedentedly clean, leaving a deep impression. How will people seek to regain this state once work resumes? Disasters will change human behavior and thinking. The things revealed in special circumstances will evoke some memories and inspire new ideas. This crisis is also testing whether our nation has reflexivity and the ability to think and reflect. I hope that beyond institutional transformation, the people can make deeper adjustments in values and accelerate civilizational transformation. How should contemporary Chinese people present their civilizational image to the world? Chinese people also need to provide an answer to this question.
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