Original Title of the Article: Plague and Epidemic Prevention: The Falsehood of History and the Falsehood of Reality Interchange | Interview with Cao Shuji (Archived)
Author: Zeng Menglong
On February 19, 2020, after deleting some content, the Beijing News published this article.
On February 26, the Quzhou Daily published an article refuting Cao Shuji, calling his remarks "horrifying." Subsequently, there was a wave of criticism on Weibo, such as @思想火炬 (certified information as "National Cultural Security and Ideological Construction Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences") questioning, "How can such a historically baseless article be openly published in a newspaper?"
However, an article from the WeChat public account "Old Ningbo" is very interesting. After fiercely criticizing Cao Shuji, it concludes: "It is rare and commendable that the New Beijing News can provide a platform for such a different view from the recognized historical conclusion and allow Professor Cao to speak freely. Society can tolerate different or even opposing opinions, which is one of the necessary conditions for historical research to reveal the truth. Just imagine, if Japanese society cannot tolerate the existence and research of anti-war scholars, then the field of Chinese resistance history would likely be stuck in the stage of victims' accusations and eyewitnesses' memories without entering the stage of academic research. Revealed historical truths should not be afraid of opposing viewpoints; otherwise, it means that the "quality" of the truth is insufficient, or that the researchers and their research results lack confidence. Therefore, I think the New Beijing News has done a good job this time, and Professor Cao deserves praise. I hope you continue."
The result is that it cannot continue.
On February 28, a certain media outlet wanted to interview Professor Cao Shuji about medical supplies, and I helped to arrange it. However, Professor Cao told me, "I am not allowed to accept interviews anymore, and I have been criticized. I'm sorry." On March 3, I learned that someone had reported this article to the Beijing News, but the newspaper ignored it. As a result, the person continued to report it to higher authorities, and the article was eventually deleted from the entire internet within China.
The following is the article previously published by the Beijing News, hereby archived.
Plague and Epidemic Prevention: The Falsehood of History and the Falsehood of Reality Interchange | Interview with Cao Shuji
Written by Zeng Menglong, Special Correspondent for the Beijing News
As a historian, facing the current epidemic, 64-year-old Cao Shuji sighed, "Everything we do in our epidemic prevention work today follows the basic principles of epidemiology. Quickly identifying the source of the epidemic, cutting off the transmission routes, and treating critically ill patients are what we should do! Using lies to disrupt the entire epidemic prevention process and destroy these three points is the price we pay today."
Unlike many others, the changes in the COVID-19 epidemic have not affected Cao Shuji's mindset. During this period, he completed two papers on the history of the plague and is currently writing the third one, living a fulfilling and magical life. "If the epidemic period is extended, I may be able to complete this book during the epidemic period. This is called 'writing the history of the epidemic during the epidemic period.' Of course, comparing history with reality is quite magical," said Cao Shuji.
Cao Shuji is currently a professor and department head of the History Department at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. His research areas include immigration history and population history, history of diseases, socio-economic history, and contemporary Chinese history. He has written books such as "Plague: War and Peace" and "Traditional Chinese Land Rights Structure and Its Evolution," and edited books such as "Tian Zu Has a God: Natural Disasters and Social Response Mechanisms since the Ming and Qing Dynasties" and "Stone Granary Contracts."
He was born in 1956 in Jiangxi Province, and has made pioneering contributions in multiple research fields. Among them, "Plague" is the first detailed discussion by mainland Chinese scholars on the prevalence of the plague in China. He and his co-author Li Yushang discussed the history of the plague in China from the perspectives of the methodology of plague history, the patterns of plague outbreaks during wartime and peacetime, environmental changes, and national medicine. They not only provided new explanations for the relationship between the plague outbreaks and environmental changes in China, but also proposed new models for the evolution of Chinese social history over the past 700 years.
Cao Shuji believes that in a sense, we can regard the essence of the social changes in modern China as ecological changes, and the essence of ecological changes over the past century as social changes. The ongoing globalization process since modern times is a causal process in which ecological changes and social changes interact with each other.
In recent years, due to the emergence of many new materials, he has conducted research on the plague warfare conducted by the Japanese invaders in China, believing that it was constructed and not historical reality. This is also the main thing he has been doing during the epidemic period, "flipping through, copying, thinking, and writing every day."
The following is an excerpt from the interview between the Beijing News and Cao Shuji.
"Plague: War and Peace," Cao Shuji, Li Yushang, Shandong Pictorial Publishing House, September 2006 edition
How did you spend your time during the epidemic?
Cao Shuji: Mainly writing. During the epidemic period, which is also the winter vacation, I wrote two papers on the history of the plague, focusing on the plague warfare conducted by the Japanese invaders in the 1940s. Now I am writing the third paper. From last year until now, I have completed a total of four papers on the plague warfare conducted by the Japanese invaders. I believe that the plague warfare conducted by the Japanese invaders in China was constructed and not historical reality. If the epidemic period is extended, I may be able to complete this book during the epidemic period. This is called "writing the history of the epidemic during the epidemic period."
Can you talk about the ideas and thoughts behind your entire book?
Cao Shuji: In 2012, I wrote an article for "Modern History Research" titled "Post-war Plague: A Study of the Plague in Tengchong from 1944 to 1947." Previously, some people believed that the plague outbreak in Tengchong, Yunnan Province in 1944 was caused by the Japanese invaders spreading the plague bacillus. My research showed that the plague outbreak in Tengchong in 1944 had nothing to do with the Japanese invaders. The two armies were facing each other, and the Japanese invaders used plague warfare. How could they control the direction in which the rats climbed? If the rats climbed up the mountain, wouldn't they climb into the Japanese positions?
Of course, rigorous academic proof is not that simple. The complete epidemiological investigation from that year is preserved in the Yunnan Provincial Archives. Based on the natural source of the plague, the direction of its spread, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the plague, I proved that this epidemic had nothing to do with the Japanese invaders. In my opinion, the academic community today is shrouded in strong nationalism, which is incorrect. We should conduct research objectively and truthfully.
Since last year, I have been paying attention to the plague warfare conducted by the Japanese invaders in Quzhou, Jinhua, Ningbo, and Changde. In recent years, most of the materials in this field have been compiled and published in English, Japanese, and Chinese. The research conditions are mature. When I opened the materials and read them briefly, I found that the research methods used by previous scholars were incorrect.
For example, in terms of the facts themselves, how can you prove that the Japanese invaders spread bacteria in Quzhou? Is it because someone said during the Republican period that we should believe and accept it? This legend not only has loopholes in terms of historical facts, but also does not hold up academically. How can the plague bacillus be preserved? How can it survive after being dispersed in the air and landing? How can it infect people after surviving? It is currently known that the main transmission route of bubonic plague is through flea bites, from rats to fleas to humans. The main transmission route of pneumonic plague is through the formation of "human-to-human" transmission through droplets. Even if bacteria were spread on an airplane, even if they survived, how could they enter these two systems? To exaggerate, even if the plague bacillus spread on the airplane fell on me, as long as it didn't fall on a wound, I wouldn't contract the plague.
The situation in Changde is the same. At that time, a doctor in Changde claimed that the plague bacillus was detected on grains and wheat scattered from Japanese planes. This claim was denied by other doctors present at the scene and authoritative scholars who arrived later. The problem is that our scholars only bring out materials that are favorable to them to prove the guilt of the Japanese invaders, so this matter has become a settled conclusion. My work now is to overturn this conclusion.
In recent years, Japanese materials have emerged. Two Japanese military personnel's materials are very important, one was a military doctor from Unit 731, and the other was a frontline staff officer. The military doctor left behind a collection of papers, and the staff officer left behind a diary of his operations. Recently, my work during the epidemic period has been criticizing these two Japanese materials. I am glad to have found their flaws. There is clear evidence that the Japanese materials are exaggerated and fabricated.
For example, in recent days, people often talk about "R0," which is the basic reproduction number, referring to the average number of people one infected person can transmit the virus to in a population without any precautions and without prior exposure to the COVID-19 virus. At that time, the Japanese military doctor used this concept, not called R0, but Cep. In the plague outbreaks in Nongan County and Dali County in 1940, this military doctor claimed that the R0 in Nongan was 77, and the R0 in the neighboring Dali County was as high as 203, without any supporting data. Isn't this nonsense?
There is also the Japanese staff officer who took hearsay as truth and recorded it in his operational diary afterwards. In Ningbo, when the events mentioned in the news occurred, this staff officer had already been transferred back to Tokyo for work. There was no way, he could only advance the time when the Japanese planes spread bacteria or fleas to the two days before he left China. History is produced in this way by them.
History is so interesting, accompanied by constant challenges and discoveries. During this epidemic period, this is mainly what I have been researching. Of course, this research also makes me uneasy. The reason why I accepted your interview and talked about my just completed paper is that - no matter when, seeking truth from facts, not telling lies, and rigorous scholarship are more important than anything else. Although more than ten years ago, China won the bacteriological warfare lawsuit against Japan, all the evidence cannot withstand scrutiny. Today, by using the correct methods, restoring the true face of history will not harm the interests of the Chinese people. This is my idea.
Regarding the construction of the plague warfare, you mentioned that there are many loopholes in the facts. Can you talk more about how it was constructed? Why was this narrative constructed?
Cao Shuji: Simply put, during the war, there were two reports on the epidemic in Zhejiang and Changde, respectively: one was Report A, and the other was Report B, which was more rigorous and authoritative, with different authors, evidence, and conclusions from Report A. However, today, everyone outside is using Report A and not Report B. The wartime nationalism and post-war nationalism have contributed to this result. Revealing the truth of this matter is quite painful for the Chinese people. But now this matter must be done, it cannot be stopped, and it cannot be turned back.
The victims during the plague outbreak in Northeast China from 1910 to 1911. Source: Thomas H. Hahn Docu-Images
Has your mindset changed during this period?
Cao Shuji: It hasn't changed. My efficiency is still high, and I can write a draft of a paper in about 10 days on average. Of course, comparing history with reality is quite magical. People have been fabricating things in every era. During the Republican period, ordinary people would fabricate things, as would sanitation and epidemic prevention personnel, government departments, Japanese military doctors, and staff officers. Today's professionals and relevant departments in disease control also openly fabricate things. The falsehood of history and the falsehood of reality interchange, which is truly magical.
You mentioned that this period is a combination of several layers of magic. Can you explain how to understand this magic?
Cao Shuji: Let's look at the specific examples in the papers. The combination of magic is the result of transforming objective facts based on different subjective purposes. Objective facts are transformed, logic is distorted, and this creates absurdity, which is magic.
During this period, have you read any books or watched any movies?
Cao Shuji: I haven't watched any movies. Every day, I flip through several reference books, such as collections of materials on the bacteriological warfare conducted by the Japanese invaders in China, which are tens of thousands of words long. I can't finish reading them, so I flip through, copy, think, and write every day.
You have written excellent books such as "Plague: War and Peace." From a historical perspective, what lessons or inspirations do you think can be discussed or reflected upon regarding this epidemic?
Cao Shuji: Everything we do in our epidemic prevention work today follows the basic principles of epidemiology. The three elements of epidemiology are the source of infection, the transmission route, and susceptible individuals. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, we have been operating according to these three principles for the past month. This is the basic principle of epidemiology, a familiar historical scene, and a real-life scenario. Quickly identifying the source of the epidemic, cutting off the transmission routes, and treating critically ill patients are what we should do! Using lies to disrupt the entire epidemic prevention process and destroy these three points is the price we pay today.
Are there any other issues that need to be discussed or reflected upon regarding the emergence and response to the epidemic?
Cao Shuji: I advocate a research method that calculates data whenever possible, and I am particularly good at it myself. We have a rough idea of the scale of deaths, as we can estimate how many people have died based on many parameters that have been leaked. The internet is very good now, and there have been some excellent articles recently discussing the power of social assistance, such as the Han Hong Foundation and alumni associations of various schools in Wuhan. These are very healthy social mechanisms and states, and we are happy to see these things. As long as information is made public, temporary chaos will be handled properly, and everything should be transparent. The whole nation will overcome the difficulties together. I think there shouldn't be any major problems, and there is no need to worry too much about how well the authorities have done.
When I saw the initial chaos, I hated nucleic acid testing. One hospital would issue 10 test papers a day, and later it became 100. The most hateful thing that happened in Hubei was that professionals lost their integrity. The disease control centers at all levels, hospital directors, and other professionals held talks and reprimanded doctors who told the truth... No matter what, professionals should speak up at the most dangerous times. That is their professional integrity, that is their professional ethics. Disease control centers and hospital directors should have stood with them.
Do you have anything to say to the general public regarding the epidemic?
Cao Shuji: At this time, it is worth following the explanations of experts and entering a slightly more professional level to enrich oneself. With so much time, knowledge is bombarding us every day. Why not calm down and patiently study? For the general public, treating it as a process of absorbing knowledge is meaningful.
Can you recommend some books or movies to readers to help them think about and understand this epidemic?
Cao Shuji: I don't have any books to recommend. I recommend that they read my books.
Special Correspondent: Zeng Menglong
Editor: Zhang Ting
Proofreader: Wei Zhuo
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